Aston Martin has begun the new era of Formula 1 in a way infinitely worse than it could have predicted, but is the team “screwed” for the decade as a result?

Let’s not beat about the bush, Aston Martin has suffered a horrendous start to the new campaign, and the rules reset that was viewed as an opportunity to close the gap to the front has instead increased this margin exponentially. The fault for this has largely been placed at the door of power unit supplier Honda, with reliability from the power unit a key factor in the problematic start. 

This failure led commentator Will Buxton to suggest of anyone considering taking the potentially available role of team principal, a position currently held by legendary designer Adrian Newey, “If you are stepping into that Aston Martin position right now, you have got to be aware that for the foreseeable future, possibly the rest of this decade, you’re completely screwed.”

It’s a bold claim, to be sure, but what does history tell us is the potential outcome?

The Golden era

Honda was a legendary engine supplier in the 1980s and early 90s, powering Williams and McLaren to a combined six constructors’ championships and five drivers’ titles.

However, while success came quickly, it was not the work of a moment, with Williams drivers Keke Rosberg and Jacques Lafitte enjoying the power of the Honda engine, but being hampered by sudden bursts that upset the car balance. Furthermore, the power delivery was so aggressive that parts of the Honda block twisted during a race distance. As such, reliability was dreadful, and Lafitte reached the chequered flag just five times.

The silver lining came in the power though, with the Williams often a top performer in a straight line. In somewhat of a freak race on a disintegrating track in Dallas, Rosberg was able to wrestle his Williams to victory – an early sign of promise.

1985 was a step forward with Williams finishing third in the constructors’ table with four wins across the year, before Honda entered its utterly dominant period. This peaked between 1986-91, in a period that saw the manufacturer claim 59 wins.

So from a relatively humble and problem filled start, Honda was able to quickly turn this around.

A turbulent F1 return

When McLaren split from Mercedes for the 2015 season and announced that it would be reuniting with Honda, memories of past glories came flooding back. 

Indeed, former boss Ron Dennis’ suggestion that a team could not win as a customer entry would prove to age about as well as Alan Hanson’s infamous, “You’ll never win anything with kids,” line.

Honda’s first hybrid power unit was, in short, hopeless. It was unreliable and lacked pace, leading to Fernando Alonso publicly comparing the power unit to a “GP2 engine” at the manufacturer’s home race at Suzuka. 

The Japanese manufacturer was unable to escape this slump, with McLaren finishing ninth in the constructors’ table in both 2015 and 2017. Although not with a traditional front-running team, when the pair split and Honda joined with Toro Rosso, this new partnership would again finish ninth.

It was not until 2019 with Red Bull, that Honda would achieve a race victory – this coming with Max Verstappen at the Austrian Grand Prix, following up a first podium of Honda’s return earlier that year in Australia.

On this occasion, the period that carries the most relevance, a first victory came in Honda’s fifth year. Fast forward to the current era, and this translates to 2030, a new decade.

The forgotten Honda F1 period

Talking solely about Honda as an engine supplier and not its own team, it is easy to forget that Honda supplied BAR from 2000-05, before adding Super Aguri to its catalogue from 2006-08 – a period in which it took control of BAR and changed it to become a factory effort.

Discounting Jenson Button’s 2006 victory which came as part of the factory team, Honda’s best return came in 2004, when Button was a near-constant presence on the podium.

Beyond that campaign, it was, as the heading may suggest, a forgettable period, where success was briefly enjoyed, and then disappeared quickly.

What does this mean for Aston Martin?

There is little doubt that Honda is working as hard as possible to get on top of the vibrations and wider reliability issues that have massively hampered Aston Martin across the opening three rounds of the season. 

But with limitations as to how many upgrades a team can bring across the campaign – this a form of balance of performance available across 2026 and ’27 known as Additional Development Upgrade Opportunities [ADUO] – there is no quick fix.

Audi, a team producing an F1 power unit for the first time, has made a far stronger start than Honda, but has set a target of 2030 for fighting for wins and championships. It should be noted, that as a factory effort, Audi has wider reaching abilities to effect performance than Honda or Aston Martin, with the two party effort having to work together rather than having complete control.

All things considered, the assessment that Aston Martin is “screwed” for the decade may be bluntly phrased, but the sentiment is correct, save for a miraculous improvement from Honda.

This too was focusing exclusively on the struggles caused largely by Honda, and ignored the ever-revolving door of team principals or leaders that Aston Martin has entertained since a rebranding exercise for the 2021 season.

Whether Newey, the potential arrival of Jonathan Wheatley, and the new factory and wind tunnel facilities are enough to turn the ship around will only become clear in time.